UConn Baseball Weekly: Big East seeding up for grabs
All four seeds in the Big East Tournament will be decided in the next three days.
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Big weekend looming
With one weekend left in the regular season, all four seeds of the Big East Tournament are still up for grabs. The regular-season champion has yet to be determined, but right now, UConn’s in first.
After climbing to the top of the Big East standings for the first time this season with their series sweep of Seton Hall (15-28, 2-16 Big East), the Huskies (30-23, 13-5 Big East) head into the final weekend in a three-way heat for first place.
St. John’s (27-23, 13-5 Big East) remains in the mix, as it has all season, while Xavier (25-27, 13-5 Big East) snuck past Creighton (28-22, 12-6) by sweeping Butler last weekend.
The Big East tournament picture has been settled: Butler, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Villanova have all been eliminated from playoff contention, but the Wildcats and Bulldogs will have a chance at playing spoiler.
Butler (19-32, 8-10 Big East) travels to Queens to take on the Red Storm, while Villanova (18-28, 4-14 Big East) heads to Storrs to face the Huskies.
Xavier and Creighton will face each other for three games in the premier series of the weekend.
St. John’s is in the best shape to nab the top seed. The Johnnies have a favorable weekend matchup in Butler and hold tiebreakers over each of the three teams in the top four. A sweep guarantees at least a share of the regular-season title.
If UConn and Xavier also sweep, the Big East would end in a three-way tie. St. John’s would be the one-seed in the conference tournament, followed by UConn at two and Xavier at three, as the Huskies took two out of three from the Musketeers in March.
Inside the UConn-Villanova Matchup
The Wildcats have dropped two out of their last three Big East series, to Seton Hall and St. John’s, while taking two out of three against Georgetown. Even in the series win, their pitching staff allowed 24 runs over three games as they finished with a combined run differential of one.
The Huskies, on the other hand, have swept their last two Big East series, against Georgetown and Seton Hall, and have won seven straight conference matchups. A blunderous loss to Northeastern has hindered some momentum, but UConn should feel confident about its chances to be a top two seed.
The Huskies have taken three straight weekend series over the Wildcats and scored 55 runs across the latest three-game set last season. UConn hasn’t lost to Villanova since 2022 and hasn’t dropped consecutive games since 2004.
The Huskies have not been quite as dominant at home this year as in seasons past, but this is a matchup on paper that bodes well for them.
Starting pitcher matchups, as they have been for UConn all year long, are a notable X-factor of the weekend.
Villanova’s JP Podgorski has evolved from a reliever into a Friday night starter in recent weeks, though the move hasn’t yielded the results expected out of a pitcher in that role. The sophomore has a 15.00 ERA over his last three starts, and he hasn’t made it into the fourth inning in any.
Other options, such as Jack Kelley (5.75 ERA in 13 starts), Jake Francis (7.03 in 19 appearances and 10 starts), and Will Parkinson (7.20 ERA in 18 appearances and 15 starts), haven’t been reliable.
It is worth noting that Kelley has pitched well at times, winning a Big East Pitcher of the Week award in March and throwing seven innings of one-run ball in a hard-luck loss to St. John’s his last time out. Still, the results have been underwhelming on the whole.
In comparison, the Huskies’ weekend rotation has been the best in the Big East, with Charlie West, Cayden Suchy, and Oliver Pudvar combining for 39 starts and 226 innings of 3.54 ERA baseball. But while the trio has started 13 straight games each so far, the rotation comes into the final week of the season facing a huge question mark.
While West is a virtual lock to reach 100 strikeouts on the year (99 so far) and Pudvar has given the Huskies four straight wins behind quality starts, a lot will depend on whether Suchy is healthy enough to pitch.
The sophomore has been the best pitcher on the top-performing rotation in the conference and is the front-runner for Big East Pitcher of the Year. The left-hander has tossed 80.1 innings with a 2.80 ERA and a league-leading 101 strikeouts.
Suchy’s health is the darkest cloud looming over the team this weekend. He left his last start against Seton Hall this past Saturday after just 2.1 innings due to an injury. His 2025 campaign ended prematurely with an elbow injury.
If Suchy can’t go, the most likely option to fill in is Charlie Hale. The plug-and-pitch man leads all Big East pitchers in ERA at 2.55 (minimum 25 IP). The junior replaced Suchy on the mound on Saturday and essentially gave the Huskies the equivalent of a quality start, going 5.1 innings of one-run baseball on just 79 pitches.
The Huskies’ lineup also hasn’t been at full strength as of late. Tyler Minick, a top contributor in 2025 and legit MLB draft prospect, has performed well, but he’s missed multiple chunks of the season. After missing almost a month early in the year, the outfielder hasn’t taken an at-bat since the St. John’s double header on April 18.
Freshman sensation Cam Righi, who is second in theBig East in home runs with 10, has an OPS of 1.024, did not appear in the Seton Hall series and also sat out against Northeastern on Tuesday.
More than ever, much of the load will fall on Jackson Marshall. Currently carrying a 42-game on-base streak, the first baseman holds an OPS of 1.153, the fourth highest in the conference.
While the Big East-leading 14 longballs are eye-catching, the fact that he’s gotten on at least three times in each of his last three games while producing 10 RBI in his last five contests shows just how many ways the hulking 6-foot-8 slugger can get it done at the dish.
Peyton Jemison has been a nice piece down the lineup since taking over the starting second base job from Evan Menzel last month. Though Jemison entered April batting .229 after a slow start to his UConn career, he exited the month with a .300 average. The Mercy University transfer has maintained that mark into May and has notched multiple base hits in two of his last four games.
Center fielder Anthony Belisario has been streaky since reentering the starting lineup after a big doubleheader performance against St. John’s. Though the sophomore has posted five hitless performances in 12 games since, he has also provided four multi-hit performances, making it somewhat of a coin flip over which version of the speedster you’ll be getting on any given day.
Team captains Maddix Dalena and Rob Rispoli have also overcome slow starts to become plus producers at the plate.
For Villanova, utilityman Collin Quintano is the top threat and the only Wildcat batter to place in the top ten in the Big East in OPS (.959). The senior leads the team in both batting average (.314) and home runs (9). JoJo Montgomery and Brayden Leonard also each have an OPS over .800.
While showers are expected on Thursday night, Friday evening is expected to be mostly clear of rain. The weather will take a turn for the better on Saturday, as it will be 70 and sunny for senior day.
Bracketology
We will know who the Big East’s automatic qualifier will be a week from Saturday when the four clubs meet in Ohio for the conference tournament. This will be our penultimate field-of-64 check-in before the selection show on May 25.
D1Baseball
For the third straight week, St. John’s is the conference champion in this forecast. And for the third time in as many weeks, their regional estimation has changed. Starting in Auburn, the Johnnies shifted to Coastal Carolina last week and now move back to the SEC to join hosts Alabama, Virginia, and High Point in Tuscaloosa.
Baseball America
The Huskies are back in the tournament picture in this projection, replacing St. John’s. Baseball America’s Big East champion has been a bit of a revolving door the past few weeks, with Creighton occupying the spot before the Red Storm. Host Georgia Tech would welcome the Huskies alongside Missouri State and Purdue.
With conference tournaments underway this weekend and next around the country, other non-baseball-specific outlets have begun to publish their predictions of the field. USA Today named Xavier the conference champ, while On3 named St. John’s. We’ll be on the lookout for more next week.
RPI Update
Xavier: No. 64 (up from 74)
UConn: No. 83 (no change)
Creighton: No. 97 (down from 84)
St. John’s: No. 107 (down from 106)
Butler: No. 237 (down from 223)
Villanova: No. 242 (up from 250)
Georgetown: No. 254 (up from 270)
Seton Hall: No. 282 (down from 278)
Xavier may be doing too little too late to make an argument for an at-large bid, but given the Big East has been a consensus one-bid league all season, it can’t hurt now to briefly examine their at-large case.
Head coach Billy O’Conner pulled a Dan Hurley and absolutely loaded his team’s non-conference slate. Using Baseball America’s most recent projection as a baseline (see above), Xavier has played a projected eight NCAA tournament teams in the non-conference. In 19 games, the Musketeers have a 6-13 record against those teams.
Oregon, Oregon State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Miami (OH), and Wright State are clubs Xavier has gone toe-to-toe with this season. According to WarrenNolan, Xavier has played the 50th hardest schedule in college baseball this year. The next closest in the Big East are Creighton (122) and UConn (126).
Two wins against ECU, one-off wins against Cincinnati, Miami, and Wright State, and one stunner over No. 2 Georgia Tech are what the committee would weigh in Xavier’s favor. A weak conference field and its current sub .500 record (25-27) will heavily bog down their at-large chances. The same two factors ultimately kept UConn from receiving an at-large bid last season.
This explainer from last year helps contextualize Xavier’s situation a bit better.
In the 64-team field, the RPI bubble is usually around No. 40, meaning Xavier needs a strong finish to its regular season — a series win over Creighton will help — and a strong showing in the conference tournament to even have a shouting chance. Xavier will host Creighton this weekend, an advantage for seeding purposes but an RPI disadvantage. The three games will be Quad 3 contests — Quad 2 if Creighton hosts.
The standings heading into the final weekend of the regular season:
On Deck
With hardware and tournament seeding on the line, UConn welcomes Villanova to Storrs for its final three games of the regular season. The Wildcats stole a win from St. John’s in the final game of their three-game set last weekend, and look to play spoiler to UConn’s No. 1 seed hopes.
Thursday: vs. Villanova | Elliot Ballpark, Storrs, CT | 6:05 p.m.
Friday: vs. Villanova | Elliot Ballpark, Storrs, CT | 6:05 p.m.
Saturday: vs. Villanova | Elliot Ballpark, Storrs, CT | 1:05 p.m.
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