Will the Big East regular season crown come down to the wire?
It seems like UConn and Creighton will play for the trophy on the last weekend of the regular season.
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Big East title race starting to take shape
With four conference series down and three more yet to come for UConn baseball, the postseason picture for the Big East as a whole is becoming increasingly clear.
It’s not quite “win and you’re in” for the Huskies, sitting at No. 17 in RPI, but it wouldn’t hurt, of course.
For the regular season title, UConn is currently headed towards a final-weekend showdown in Omaha against Creighton. The Jays currently lead the Huskies by a half-game in the standings, sitting at 9-3, while UConn is stuck at 8-3 in-conference after the rained-out Villanova game that was scheduled for Sunday of last weekend.
Creighton has taken care of business in every Big East series save for one this year, dropping a set against Georgetown on the weekend of April 16, but made up for that lost series with three-game sweeps against St. John’s and Butler (something that UConn has been unable to muster so far in conference play).
The Bluejays and the Huskies seem to be headed on a collision course at the end of the season, but look no further than Xavier to see how quickly it can be derailed.
The Musketeers led the Big East until their series starting April 14, when UConn came out on top in Cincinnati, two games to one, in a series where they actually outscored the Huskies by seven runs. Xavier rebounded with a sweep of Villanova, but then dropped the next series two games to one against Seton Hall.
While UConn faces Seton Hall this weekend, Creighton and Xavier will face off in the Bluejay’s biggest conference test yet. Should they come out on top against the Musketeers, UConn’s final series of the season will be for all the marbles in the Big East.
RPI Update
As of the start of play on May 4, UConn is at No. 17 in the RPI according to Warren Nolan, which is a slight push down from the No. 14 rank at this time last week. There were few RPI points to be had against Villanova over the weekend, even on the road, as the Wildcats are among the worst 50 teams in Division I in the metric. Other teams, such as Tennessee, played much more highly-ranked foes and won, pushing them ahead of the Huskies.
It was a bad RPI weekend for some of the other programs that UConn has already beaten, as well, which put a damper on the Storrs nine’s ranking. Ohio State, Rutgers, and Xavier, against which the Huskies are a combined 7-3, have each been sliding. The Buckeyes have just one Big Ten series win and haven’t had success with midweek games, pushing them out of Quad 2, while Rutgers just lost a road series at Purdue and is in danger of falling out of the top 50.
As for Xavier, the Musketeers fell in a home series against Seton Hall and are no longer Quad 1. On the bright side, the Pirates are up 40 spots after the two victories in Cincinnati, while Creighton, which leads the Big East by half of a game, has just one bad RPI game left and is knocking on the door of the top 100.
UConn has just 11 games left before the Big East Tournament and needs to keep up its winning ways to maintain its lofty RPI ranking. According to Boyds’ World’s RPI Needs Report, which measures how high a team can reach in the RPI in a vacuum, the Huskies need to win each of its seven home games and three road contests to stay in the top 16.
The average RPI of these 11 contests is 171.0 and features seven Quad 4 games. Wins over these schools generate little positive momentum in the RPI, while a loss, especially at home, can prove disastrous and push a team several spots down the rankings.
Bracketology
After a one-week respite, Baseball America is again forecasting a Storrs Regional. UConn finished 2-0 against Villanova with a midweek win over Rhode Island, while Boston College, which formerly was the host, lost a home series to Clemson along with a midweek victory over UMass Lowell. The Huskies are seeded No. 16. The Eagles, along with Northeastern and Army, fill out the regional. Jim Penders’ team is 2-2 against the field. It split against Boston College, fell to Northeastern, and topped CCSU, which is the 4-seed in No. 6 Duke’s Durham Regional.
D1Baseball.com, which has been higher on the Huskies in the past, is sending UConn to Brighton. Boston College is seeded No. 14 and the Brighton Regional will also feature Northeastern and CCSU. In the outlet’s podcast, it cited the program’s RPI, which is likely to fall, as the barrier to hosting, though UConn is one of the first teams to leap back into the top 16 if other schools stumble or the RPI remains high with plenty of wins.
The Week Ahead
Friday: Seton Hall, 7:35 p.m., UConn+
Saturday: Seton Hall, 4:05 p.m., UConn+
Sunday: Seton Hall, 2:30 p.m., CW20
Wednesday: Hofstra, 6:05 p.m., UConn+
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