Will the Big East be a three-bid league?
Since UConn returned to the Big East, it's been the Huskies and the tournament champion in the NCAA Tournament. That may change this year.
Thank you for being a subscriber to the Hook C Baseball newsletter.
This weekly newsletter is brought to you by the folks who run The UConn Blog on SB Nation and the UConn WBB Weekly, UConn Hockey Hub, The UConn Daily and Husky Football Forum newsletters! Please consider sharing or supporting our work!
Can Creighton or Xavier join UConn in the NCAA Tournament field?
The Big East has had two at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament since UConn re-joined the league in time for the 2021 season. The Huskies have earned both of those spots after taking the regular season title, but falling in the conference tournament. The last non-UConn team to earn entrance into the field of 64 outside the conference tournament is St. John’s, which did so in 2017. That version of the Red Storm is the only at-large bid for the Big East since the Catholic Seven split prior to 2014.
It’s rare that there’s a strong competitor for an at-large bid that isn’t based in Storrs, Connecticut, but there might be two this year.
Xavier, which is just behind UConn in the conference standings, is also in the top 50 of the RPI, partially because of an absurd schedule. According to Warren Nolan, the Musketeers played the third-strongest non-conference slate. That includes road series at Vanderbilt and Stanford, two games in Arizona against Oregon State and midweek trips to LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky and Cincinnati. They’ve played 30 Quad 1 and 2 games, compared with 20 against Quads 3 and 4, with only three defeats against the latter.
Billy O’Conner’s group has held the Big East’s automatic bid in most in-season bracketology projections, which comes primarily from a March series win over UConn. That’s arguably its marquee result, though a split on the road at Stanford is nothing to sneeze at, either. However, this is a team that would absolutely be in the discussion for an at-large bid without the Big East crown.
Creighton is also an interesting case study. The Bluejays’ RPI is a bit light, at No. 60, but have a great opportunity this weekend against the aforementioned Musketeers. However, they’re one up in the loss column on UConn in the Big East standings and have beat just about everyone that’s come in their path, with no sweeps against and just two losing weekends all season.
The only issue is that they’ll catch UConn and Xavier at home, pushing them to Quad 2 and don’t have any Quad 1 games. Creighton has played four top 50 games this year, with a 3-1 record, but all four have come at home. This adds up to a non-conference strength of schedule ranking near No. 200.
Both Creighton and Xavier are in varying places on the bubble, but for different reasons. The former is arguably in a worse place, particularly with the RPI figure, but an 8-3 Quad 2 record is a good asset, especially if it can jump into the RPI top 50. The latter doesn’t have the slam-dunk kind of record that the committee often looks for outside the power leagues, but the Musketeers truly challenged themselves with a really difficult schedule.
UConn’s place in the field is hardly secured, which means this could absolutely end up being a one-bid conference, rather than three. However, there haven’t been this many teams in NCAA Tournament competition in May since the Big East’s new membership began.
RPI Update
UConn is off this week for finals and didn’t play any midweek games, but its road sweep over Villanova helped push the Huskies into the top 40, moving from No. 41 to No. 32 in the RPI.
Jim Penders’ team has seven games remaining before the Big East Tournament and only one is going to provide any RPI value. UConn closes out the Big East slate this weekend with a home set against Butler, which is in the RPI bottom 35. It’s likely that the Huskies will lose RPI points even with wins, while the final regular season series against Maine won’t be much better, though the Black Bears are about 100 spots higher in the rankings.
The last chance for UConn to shore up its resume comes on Tuesday, when Northeastern comes to town. The Huskies from Huntington Ave. in Boston are No. 33 in the RPI and the primary challenger to UConn’s claim to regional supremacy.
Bracketology
Baseball America
UConn is the Big East’s representative in Baseball America’s field of 64, as Xavier moves into the at-large pool. The Musketeers are the last team in the field. The Huskies are going back to the Conway Regional, where they reached a final in 2018. This one is hosted by No. 12 Coastal Carolina, with 2-seed Alabama and 4-seed High Point filling out the quartet.
Three Regional hosts in No. 7 Vanderbilt, No. 8 North Carolina and No. 11 UCLA have appeared in a single game on UConn’s schedule. The Huskies have also faced 2-seed USC, 3-seeds Duke and Northeastern and 4-seed Bryant and won a series against Miami (FL), a 2-seed.
D1Baseball
UConn has overtaken Xavier for the Big East’s automatic bid in D1Baseball’s projection. The Huskies are the 3-seed in No. 14 Oregon State’s Corvallis Regional, along with 2-seed Oklahoma and 4-seed Nevada. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are also the 64th team in this field.
Jim Penders’ team has played single games against No. 7 North Carolina, No. 8 Vanderbilt and No. 15 UCLA, as well as 2-seed Duke, 3-seeds Northeastern and Stetson and 4-seed Bryant. The Huskies also took two of three from 2-seed Miami (FL).
The Week Ahead
Friday: Butler; 6:05 p.m.; FloSports
Saturday: Butler; 2:05 p.m.; FloSports
Sunday: Butler; 12:05 p.m.; FloSports
Tuesday: Northeastern; 6:35 p.m.; UConn+
If you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, please consider sharing it with a friend or two - it would mean a lot to us!
Be sure to follow The UConn Blog!