Who gets left out of the Big East Tournament?
There are five top-100 RPI teams, but only four spots in the conference tournament.
Thank you for being a subscriber to the Hook C Baseball newsletter.
This weekly newsletter is brought to you by the folks who run The UConn Blog on SB Nation and the UConn WBB Weekly, UConn Hockey Hub, UConn Fast Break and Husky Football Forum newsletters! Please consider sharing or supporting our work!
Five enter, four may leave when it comes to the Big East
There are three more weeks left in the regular season and the Big East has separated itself into two tiers. The first is RPI top-50 adjacent squads that could fight for an NCAA Tournament berth, whether as an at-large program or a conference tournament champion that wouldn’t be a total upset, while the other is RPI sub-150 schools that are largely playing for pride at this point and would need a big run to play June baseball.
The top tier has five squads: Creighton, Georgetown, St. John’s, UConn and Xavier. The only problem is that there are only four spots in the Big East Tournament, which means one of them is going to get left out.
UConn is seemingly safe without an epic collapse. The Huskies are five-and-a-half games ahead of Creighton, which occupies fifth place, with nine to play. Even with a sweep against the Bluejays in two weeks, the Huskies would still be two-and-a-half ahead with six other games left. A pair of series wins against Butler and Seton Hall would then be enough, even if Creighton goes undefeated.
Georgetown is in a bit more of a precarious position. The Hoyas have just six conference games left, with a home series against Xavier and a visit to St. John’s. They’re three ahead in the loss column and would require a 3-3 finish against two solid programs to guarantee its place in Mason, Ohio on Memorial Day Weekend, regardless of what the Bluejays do.
St. John’s is also three ahead in the loss column, but has the full complement of nine games to play. Moving day is this weekend for the Red Storm, as Creighton comes to town and could be one-half game back by Sunday. They also have a trip to Seton Hall and a home series against Georgetown left on the docket.
Xavier leads the league in RPI but is just at 6-6 in Big East play. However, the Musketeers have already played most of the other teams with which they’re battling for conference position, which means plenty of wins could be in order over the next three weeks. They’ll need to take series against Butler and Villanova, while hanging tough against Georgetown to hold onto fourth place, one-and-a-half games ahead of Creighton.
The Bluejays hold the unfortunate fifth spot and have a tough road, as each of the next two weekends are against teams ahead of them in the standings, before closing with Seton Hall. However, this can help them vault right into the thick of the race with series against St. John’s and UConn. As Creighton will have played only 20 games by the end of the year, rather than 21, tiebreakers will be less applicable, which means it might be able to sneak in a half-game ahead of another team. On the other hand, it could be missing the chance to have salvaged the series finale against the Hoyas.
Overall, Creighton is behind the eight-ball and faces an uphill battle to get back into the race. Georgetown and Villanova are off this weekend, but the remainder of the top half of the standings are facing off against the bottom half. That means that the top four could be even more crystallized with two weeks remaining, or it could be the start of a frenetic finish.
RPI Update
As of the start of play on May 2, UConn is No. 44 in the RPI, inching down from No. 38 at this time last week. The Huskies did away with Villanova in dominating fashion on Friday and Saturday, holding on for the sweep in the Sunday finale. The trio of Quad 4 victories were worth only a handful of RPI points, which when combined with a week off for finals, caused them to be passed by other teams.
This is still within at-large range, even if most brackets expect Jim Penders’ team to secure the Big East bid, but a 3-11 Quad 1 record will give the committee pause if it’s not able to win the conference tournament. There aren’t any more true RPI anchors in the schedule, as each of the six sub-100 games left will take place away from Elliot Ballpark. There is one Quad 1 game remaining, along with four Quad 2 and six Quad 3.
According to Boyd’s World’s RPI Needs report, which estimates how many games each team needs to win to reach an RPI threshold in a vacuum. UConn needs an 8-3 finish to get into the top 32 and cannot reach the top 16 without help.
Bracketology
Baseball America
Baseball America is quite bullish on UConn this week, pushing the Huskies up to a 2-seed as the Big East’s automatic bid. However, they drew No. 2 Arkansas and the Fayetteville Regional. UConn and the Razorbacks are joined by 3-seed Louisiana Tech and 4-seed Arkansas- Little Rock. Georgetown, which is part of the next four out, is the only team close to the field, but the outlet’s bubble watch highlights each of the three remaining RPI-top 100 schools.
UC Santa Barbara (2-seed) is the only weekend foe in the field, but there are several midweek opponents, including No. 13 Indiana State, Kansas State (3-seed), Northeastern (3-seed) and No. 14 UC Irvine.
D1Baseball
D1Baseball.com did the same, pushing the Huskies up to the 2-line. The outlet has UConn in a bit better of a spot, slotted in No. 7 Florida State’s Tallahassee Regional. It’s remarkably similar to the 2023 Gainesville Regional, as Texas Tech and Florida A&M both fill out the field. St. John’s joins the Huskies as a 3-seed in the Corvallis Regional, hosted by No. 9 Oregon State. The Red Storm are among the last four in.
No. 15 UC Santa Barbara is the lone weekend opponent as part of the field of 64. Bryant (4-seed), No. 11 Indiana State, Kansas State (3-seed), Northeastern (3-seed) and UC Irvine (2-seed) faced the Huskies in a single game and were selected to a Regional.
The Week Ahead
Friday: at Seton Hall; 4 p.m; FloSports
Saturday: at Seton Hall; 1 p.m.; FloSports
Sunday: at Seton Hall; 12 p.m.; FloSports
Tuesday: at Northeastern; 1 p.m.; FloSports
If you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, please consider sharing it with a friend or two - it would mean a lot to us!
Be sure to follow The UConn Blog!