UConn enters the last weekend of the regular season trying to fight back
The Huskies had a bad weekend against the worst possible opponent.
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UConn’s sloppy play finally catches up
UConn baseball had little margin of error through much of the regular season if it wanted to be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history, particularly against its penultimate weekend series foe, Butler.
The Bulldogs sat squarely inside Quad 4 in RPI. Fair or not, even playing these games would cause the Huskies to stay stagnant or even drop in RPI, but losing even a single one of them would cause a serious blow to their dreams of hosting.
UConn had to be perfect and it was far from it, requiring walk-offs and plenty of offense to cover up errors and poor pitching in the series’ first two games, but the Huskies finally succumbed to defeat on Sunday.
Most of UConn’s problems last weekend, and indeed the entire season, have stemmed from a common issue: a lack of starting pitching.
“The starting pitching has been inconsistent,” head coach Jim Penders told the Hartford Courant after the Huskies’ loss to Butler on Sunday, “Certainly, the last couple of weeks, it’s been bad. It taxes your bullpen, taxes your defense and gets physically and mentally exhausting for our defense and our offense.”
UConn starting pitchers allowed 10 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings pitched over the weekend, continuing a worrisome trend. Out of the six UConn pitchers who have started a game, only one of them — veteran weekday man Garrett Coe — has an ERA below 4.00. Those six have a combined 5.28 ERA, a bloated number compared to last year, when the seven arms that started a game earned a combined 3.77 ERA.
In addition to higher run totals, the starters aren’t pitching as deep into games, going an average of slightly more than 4 1/3 innings deep so far in 2023 versus a bit over 5 1/3 innings in 2022.
As Penders pointed out, this tends to put a strain on the defense and relief pitching, and that was certainly on display this weekend against Butler. The opener went by without a hitch, relatively speaking, but the Huskies still had to rely on their offense and 5 1/3 shutout frames in relief from Zach Fogell to come back from an early 3-1 hole.
In the middle game, their defense and bullpen were pushed nearly to their breaking point, but the offense was able to again win the day. Leading 5-4 heading into the top of the ninth, three errors led to two runs scoring, and the Huskies were forced to play catchup in the bottom of the inning.
UConn ended up digging themselves a hole too big to come back from in the finale.
Ian Cooke was chased from the game after just 1 2/3 innings, walking three and allowing four earned runs. UConn had three errors in total in the game, two leading to runs, and one in the top of the ninth to put the go-ahead run aboard for Butler.
UConn’s chances of hosting a regional tanked as a result of the loss, moving from No. 16 in the RPI at first pitch to No. 25 by game’s end, though a North Carolina loss in the midweek pushed the team back to No. 24.
Starting pitching and pitching depth are both essential to a late postseason run, and without those two important pieces, it’s worth questioning how far this version of the Huskies can progress.
RPI Update
As of the start of play on May 18, UConn is at No. 24 in the RPI according to Warren Nolan, which is a nine-spot drop from the No. 16 ranking the Huskies held last week. UConn played sub-200 Butler over the weekend and escaped in the series’ first two games with walk-off victories, but weren’t so fortunate in the series finale. Penders’ team committed an error each in the eighth and ninth innings, which led to four unearned runs in an 11-8 defeat. UConn was at No. 16 entering play on Sunday, but the defeat pushed the Huskies back down to No. 25.
UConn is 6-3 against Quad 1 in the RPI, as Xavier popped into the top 50, along with Rutgers, which has played jump rope with the top 50 line. Boston College and Northeastern are solidly within Quad 1, as well. This success extends to an 8-4 Quad 2 record, with sweeps over the Scarlet Knights and FAU. Hofstra and CCSU, each of which fell to the Huskies in midweek battles, are just outside the top 100. Hofstra, which hosts top-100 Elon to close the regular season, may get there, but CCSU draws Stonehill, which is among the bottom 10 RPI teams in Division I.
UConn’s final regular season series, on the road against Creighton, is going to be Quad 3 once it starts, but may not finish that way, as the Bluejays are No. 131 in the RPI.
According to Boyds’ World’s RPI Needs Report, which measures how high a team can reach in the RPI in a vacuum, the Huskies can’t get back into the top 16 by the end of the regular season. The conference tournament isn’t likely to be much help, with only one top-100 opponent in Xavier, though a surging Seton Hall, which sits at No. 133, would need to lose a series against Villanova to miss out, with the last spot likely coming down to either Georgetown or the Bluejays, each of which would be on the borderline between Quad 3 and 4. While UConn won’t be able to climb several spots, it will likely prevent a freefall with a weak performance in Mason, Ohio.
Bracketology
With less than two weeks until Selection Monday, the field of 64 projections for D1Baseball.com and Baseball America are starting to solidify.
UConn remains the 2-seed in Baseball America’s bracket, placing them in No. 14 Boston College’s Brighton Regional along with 3-seed Northeastern and 4-seed Army. The Eagles moved up from No. 16 overall, but the other three competitors in their regional remained the same from last week.
D1Baseball.com has the Huskies as the 2-seed in No. 1 Wake Forest’s Winston-Salem Regional, along with UC Irvine and Maine. UConn, along with the Eagles, were removed as hosts in favor of Virginia and Oregon State.
The D1Baseball.com podcast hosts agreed that UConn is out of the top 16 presently, but does have a path to get back in by the time the hosts are announced on May 28. Meanwhile, Boston College was right on the bubble for a hosting spot.
UConn’s loss to Butler on Sunday likely removed it from the hosting discussion, while Boston College closes with a home series and Northeastern’s strength of schedule likely prevents those Huskies from moving to the 2-line. This will hold the top three-quarters of this Regional together, pending a free-fall from any of the three, or if a hot finish from UConn and Boston College is enough to give both the Huskies and Eagles a 1-seed. The final spot in a regional that involves these three will, in all likelihood, be the champions of one of the America East, Ivy League, MAAC, Northeast, and Patriot League.
The Week Ahead
Thursday: at Creighton; 7 p.m.; FS1
Friday: at Creighton; 7 p.m.; FloSports
Saturday: at Creighton; 1 p.m.; FloSports
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