The numbers behind UConn baseball's slow league start
The Huskies have struggled to begin Big East play.
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UConn baseball has lost consecutive conference series for the first time since 2017
UConn has fallen in back-to-back conference weekends, dropping two of three to Xavier and Creighton, each of which were away from Elliot Ballpark. It’s the first time the program has done so since April 2017, when the Huskies traveled to Tulane and UCF on back-to-back weekends. The Green Wave sent them away with a sweep, while the Knights took two of three.
Forty-six conference weekends passed between the two streaks and in those series, Jim Penders’ teams were an impressive 24-1-1 against Big East foes, including 11 sweeps, as well as 14-6 over American Athletic Conference squads. They have been swept just twice in that span (ECU 2019, Georgetown 2022).
The losses in 2017 somewhat undid a 6-0 start to conference season, though Huskies finished 14-10 in American Athletic Conference play and tied for third in the standings. They made the conference tournament semifinals, but fell there and were among the first four out of the NCAA Tournament field. It’s the last time UConn wasn’t selected, kickstarting an on-going streak of six-straight, the longest in school history.
This is also the slowest conference start since 2014, which was also 2-4. USF took two of three in Tampa, followed by a split in two games with Rutgers as Sunday got washed out. Cincinnati won on Friday the following weekend, pushing the Huskies two games below .500.
This doesn’t mean the Huskies are going to fade away this season without opportunity to turn it around and get into the Big East Tournament. Creighton is the current favorite to take the conference crown and Xavier is a top-20 RPI team, though this is likely inflated somewhat by its 15 Quad 1 games out of 32 overall for a No. 2 non-conference strength of schedule nationally. St. John’s, which is in the back half of the top 100, looms as well, but the Red Storm are just 2-8 against Quads 1 and 2 and have struggled against teams in the top half of the country in RPI, which is close to becoming viable.
The rest of the Big East has struggled and aside from Villanova, are sub-200 RPI teams and are destined for a losing record. Butler, Georgetown and Seton Hall are a combined 33-61 and each lost their first conference series over the weekend. The opportunity remains for UConn to turn its season around, but will need to get plenty of wins against the Bulldogs, Hoyas and Pirates to prevent dropping precious RPI points, plus compete well against St. John’s and Villanova, as the Red Storm and Wildcats are the Huskies’ primary competition for a Big East Tournament slot.
As the competition gets easier, starting this weekend at home against Georgetown, players like Cayden Suchy (3-4, 5.94) and Matt Garbowski (.234/.368/.255) that have shown flashes, whether this season or in the past, will need to start to realize their potential a bit more often, while Oliver Pudvar (4-1, 3.00) and Ryan Daniels (.337/.450/.596) will continue to keep it rolling like they have all season.
Around the Big East
Until RPI is viable, which comes in mid-April, this space will take a look at what each Big East team has been doing in the early part of the season.
Butler and Xavier
Conference play opened for the rest of the league and Butler drew Xavier. The Musketeers were not kind hosts, capping off a three-game sweep with a 14-1 victory on Sunday.
Butler did, however, earn a run-rule win over Evansville on Tuesday to snap a four-game losing streak. The Bulldogs move on to host Villanova this weekend and will continue the homestand with a contest agaisnt Ball State on Tuesday.
The Joe Nuxhall Classic was this week. Xavier opened up with a 6-4 win against Miami (OH) and faced off with Wright State in the second game, but could not come away with the trophy. A trip to St. John’s looms this weekend, as does a date with crosstown rival Cincinnati on Tuesday.
Creighton
After taking on UConn over the weekend and securing a series victory, the Bluejays fell at North Dakota State on Tuesday. Seton Hall is on the docket this weekend in South Orange, with a midweek battle against Nebraska to follow.
Georgetown and Villanova
Villanova hosted the Hoyas and after a Georgetown victory on Friday, the Wildcats took the series with back-to-back wins. It was a tight series, with just 24 total runs across the three games.
Georgetown went to Maryland on Tuesday and snagged an 11-7 win over the Terrapins. The Hoyas are up to Storrs to face UConn this weekend and will take advantage of Oregon’s trip east to face the Ducks on Monday.
Villanova’s midweek game against Penn was canceled and the Wildcats will get out on the road again, heading to Butler this weekend before taking the midweek off.
St. John’s and Seton Hall
It was the Battle of metro New York over the weekend, with Queens as the venue. St. John’s earned the sweep, starting with a 13-0 beatdown on Friday, followed by a pair of one-run contests as part of a Sunday doubleheader.
The Red Storm went to Iona on Tuesday and left New Rochelle with an 8-3 victory. Xavier is coming to town this weekend, followed by a Tuesday midweek battle with Hofstra.
The Pirates took a trip down the New Jersey Turnpike to play Rutgers, but took an 11-4 defeat. Seton Hall will open its home conference slate against Creighton this weekend, with no midweek game to follow.
Bracketology
Baseball America
UConn remains out in Baseball America’s field of 64 and Creighton has held on to the Big East’s automatic bid, while Xavier is listed as the third team out after being off the bubble last week.
No. 8 North Carolina and No. 15 Vanderbilt appeared on UConn’s schedule and will host Regionals in this projection. The Huskies also faced off in a single game against 2-seed UCLA, as well as 3-seeds Duke, Northeastern and USC.
D1Baseball
D1Baseball didn’t have a field of 64 as of press time.
The Week Ahead
Friday: vs. Georgetown; 6:05 p.m.; FloSports
Saturday: vs. Georgetown; 2:05 p.m.; FloSports
Sunday: vs. Georgetown; 1:05 p.m.; FloSports
Tuesday: at Boston College; 4 p.m.; ACC Network Extra
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