Should UConn be worried?
The Huskies were uncharacteristically off in the Big East Tournament, bowing out after going 0-2.
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Should UConn be concerned with its 0-2 Big East Tournament?
UConn baseball has had a lot of success in conference tournaments since Jim Penders was hired before the 2004 season. The Huskies have played in 17 events since then and have a 44-26 record, with 10 finals appearances and four titles. Before this season’s Big East Tournament, UConn hadn’t gone winless in an NCAA Tournament since 2000.
However, the Storrs nine went 0-2 last week after finishing Big East play 17-4, losing a pair of one-run, extra-inning games that were vastly different, though they came undone in similar ways.
The tournament opener, against Xavier, was halted by rain in the sixth and resumed the following morning as both pitchers were dealing. Luke Broadhurst led off the ninth with a triple as the winning run, but Korey Morton popped it up and then both Maddix Dalena and Tyler Minick struck out. In the 10th, the Huskies had another chance with a runner on, but TC Simmons popped up a sacrifice bunt and then the Musketeers forced a double play. The winning run got on base in the 11th, but they couldn’t scratch any runs across.
In the elimination game, each team had much more offense and the pitching struggled, but Georgetown still shut the Huskies down when it mattered. Bryan Padilla hit a two-run three-bagger in the eighth to give his team a one-run lead. However, a two-out RBI single in the ninth sent the contest to extra innings and a leadoff walk ended up scoring to be the difference in the game.
Ultimately, UConn couldn’t get the big hit at the right time and were unable to secure a win, but to say the team wasn’t clutch isn’t necessarily true. Padilla came up huge with his triple and the game could have ended in nine innings if not for him.
This shouldn’t be a cause for concern. While it’s the most recent result, bat and ball sports are famous for requiring large sample sizes to determine any kind of reliable outcomes. Any hitter can have a 4-for-5 game, but are they going to hit .800 over the season? If a team loses five of six, does that mean that it will only finish 9-47 in a 56-game season?
UConn is in a tough regional with two hosting-level quality teams and also another squad that went to the College World Series last year in Oral Roberts. The Huskies have a relatively pedestrian slash line of .276/.376/.469. Both batting average and on-base percentage are outside the top half of Division I, but slugging percentage is knocking on the door of the top 100, as they’re No. 75 in home runs and also hit plenty of doubles.
The pitching will be crucial to advancing in this regional. While Oral Roberts hasn’t hit a ton this season, both Duke and Oklahoma have and that pitching has been what has kept the Huskies in games when the offense isn’t going. Despite a 5.01 team ERA, the hitting environment in college baseball is such that the team holds the No. 53 ranking in the country, while they’re No. 42 in strikeouts.
Ian Cooke is the probable starter on Friday and since returning to the rotation for conference play, has been an exceptional arm and won Big East pitcher of the year. Now, it’s time for him to do it against an ACC offense that scored 43 runs in four games in the conference tournament.
Oklahoma’s offense is even better, in the top 30 of both batting average and on-base percentage. Four hitters have or are flirting with a 1.000 OPS, with solid pitching to match. On their home field, the Sooners are going to be tough to beat.
However, the Huskies have pedigree. They’ve made six consecutive NCAA Tournaments, doing so on multiple occasions as an at-large squad. The upperclassmen have each been here multiple times before and Cooke pitched in a deciding Super Regional game in 2022.
It’ll be an uphill battle to leave Norman with a second regional title in three years with the draw the Huskies received, but they certainly have a chance if the offense is able to come up with the right hits at the right time and the pitching can do what it’s done most of the season.
Bracketology
There’s no more bracketology, as the field of 64 was unveiled on Monday to start the final postseason tournament of the athletic season.
UConn was awarded the 3-seed in the Norman Regional, which is hosted by No. 9 Oklahoma. Duke, the 2-seed, as well as 4-seed Oral Roberts, will also compete for a Super Regional spot. Both the Blue Devils and Golden Eagles won their conference tournaments, while the Sooners fell in the Big 12 Tournament final.
Duke had a legitimate argument to host, as it owned a top-20 RPI and ACC Tournament crown, but instead, it is traveling, which makes for a difficult regional. Whichever team comes out of L. Dale Mitchell Stadium as Norman Regional champions will be battle-tested.
Oklahoma made the College World Series championship series in 2022 and are hosting a Regional for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, Duke has undergone a renaissance, as the program snapped a 55-year NCAA Tournament drought in 2016 and have missed just two events since, making three Super Regionals. Oral Roberts was just the third 4-seed to make the College World Series in 2023 and are a mainstay in the field, with just four misses since 1998.
The winner of the Noman Regional will face whichever school comes out of the Tallahassee Regional. No. 8 Florida State is hosting Alabama, Stetson and UCF.
The Week Ahead
Friday
Game 1: UConn vs. Duke; 1 p.m.; ESPN+
Game 2: Oral Roberts vs. No. 9 Oklahoma; 7 p.m.; ESPN+
Saturday
Game 3: Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2 (Elimination Game); 3 p.m.; ESPN Networks
Game 4: Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2; 9 p.m.; ESPN Networks
Sunday
Game 5: Winner Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4 (Elimination Game); 3 p.m.; ESPN Networks
Game 6: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5; 9 p.m.; ESPN Networks
Monday
Game 7: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 (if necessary); TBD; ESPN Networks
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