Is UConn baseball postseason ready?
The Huskies have the hitting, but will the pitching hold them back?
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How ready is UConn for the postseason?
This year has been just about as good of a regular season as any in head coach Jim Penders’ 20th season at the helm of UConn baseball.
The Huskies followed up their record-breaking 2022 by winning 40 regular season games for the second straight. They’ve wrapped up their third-straight regular season Big East title, and are entering the postseason with their usual lofty goals of making it to the College World Series.
But what does it take to get there? And do the Huskies have it? What the Huskies excel at isn’t necessarily what will translate to good postseason performances.
A cursory look at their pitching staff shows that Penders has a lot of work on his hands if he wants to go deep in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The college baseball postseason format will tax even the deepest pitching staff in the country, and UConn has a long way to go in that regard.
“You’ve got to hit well to get to Omaha,” Penders summarized. “But we’ve got to pitch better.”
Out of the eight teams that made the College World Series last year, just one of them had a team ERA over 4.92 (where UConn currently sits.) In double-elimination tournaments, the teams that end up in the loser’s bracket must play four high-intensity games in four days to take home a championship. Plenty of great teams have had their dreams dashed in late May and early June when their pitchers run out of gas.
Unfortunately for its postseason aspirations, UConn’s starting pitching staff has been a weak spot, and none of the starting pitchers have separated themselves as the ace of the squad.
After exploding onto the scene in 2022 and starting the new season as the Friday night starter, Ian Cooke has been underwhelming in 2023 with a 5.74 ERA and departed Saturday’s start against Creighton after two innings with an arm injury. Andrew Sears, a transfer from Rhode Island College, took over as the Friday night starter midway through the season but has been inconsistent.
The most UConn pitcher that has given length, and the one tabbed to take the mound in the Big East Tournament’s opening game, is Garrett Coe. The left-handed junior has started five weekday games for the Huskies this year, while also throwing out of the bullpen, and is one of two UConn arms that have recorded a start with a sub-4.50 ERA. Coe has been a steady presence out of the bullpen and as a starter and while he threw 5 1/3 shutout innings in relief against Seton Hall, his five starts have averaged just three innings.
Stephen Quigley has been another reliable arm on the mound and should see a start this weekend and next, boasting a team-high 69 innings pitched and a 4.30 ERA. There are other emergent options for postseason play, like left-hander Zach Fogell, who leads the team in both appearances, with 32, and ERA (1.50), and Justin Willis and Brady Afthim has proven themselves to be reliable bullpen arms, but beyond that, there are plenty of unknowns.
Ultimately, UConn might have to slug their way to wins in the postseason. The Big East Tournament is certainly set up for someone to do that — Prasco Park is known for having a short porch — and the Huskies can slug it out with the best of them.
There’s plenty of precedent for it in the NCAA Tournament, too. UConn scored 35 runs in four games in the College Park Regional to get to a Super Regional, and took a similar route to the Oklahoma City Regional final in 2019, scoring 31 runs in three games to get there.
UConn’s lineup boasts power bats like Luke Broadhurst (13 home runs) and Ben Huber (14 home runs), tremendous hitters in David Smith (.284/.424/.468) and Dom Freeberger (.350/.433/.507), and a seemingly endless fountain of talent off the bench, like Ryan Daniels and Paul Tammaro, able to step up when called upon.
This year’s crop of hitters is among the best in program history, along with 2010, 2011 and 2022. With the pitching staff a question mark, the batting order might just have to perform to that level.
RPI Update
As of the start of play on May 24, UConn is No. 25 in the RPI according to Warren Nolan, which is a one-spot decrease in the rankings since this time last week. The Huskies took two of three on the road from Creighton, which is at No. 125 in the RPI after the weekend. However, movements in the ACC and SEC Tournaments on Tuesday prevented a move up.
Penders’ squad dropped the opener but rebounded and won the final two contests. This, combined with Xavier’s 1-2 weekend against Georgetown, delivered UConn its third straight Big East regular season title by a game and a half over the Musketeers.
Xavier and Rutgers, which dropped a road series to sub-200 Minnesota, each fell out of Quad 1. This dropped the Huskies’ record against the top 50 to 1-2, which likely disqualifies them from hosting, but they’re 13-5 against Quad 2 competition and have a strong strength of schedule and record away from Elliot Ballpark, which will help UConn in the 2-seed pecking order.
The Big East Tournament is next, with the Huskies starting against No. 4 Georgetown, which is ranked No. 143 in the RPI. The field is filled out by 2-seed Xavier (No. 56) and 3-seed Seton Hall (No. 134) and is a double-elimination format.
It’s unlikely UConn will be able to rise significantly in the RPI between the start of the Big East Tournament and Selection Monday. However, the Huskies are just 18 RPI points behind No. 20 Campbell, which means there is an outside chance of moving up and staying on the fringes of the hosting race.
Bracketology
UConn was the 2-seed in No. 15 Boston College’s Brighton Regional on Monday, joined by 3-seed USC and 4-seed Fairfield. There was a lot of host shuffling for the outlet, with four new hosts, including the Eagles. The Huskies were briefly discussed as a host due to their 40-win regular season and conference championship but were dismissed due to a 1-2 record against the top 50. No. 45 Kent State and No. 98 Army are the only other schools in the top 100 with fewer Quad 1 games.
The biggest development for the Storrs nine in this projection is Northeastern’s elevation to a 2-seed. The Huntington Ave. Huskies are up to No. 31 in the RPI and own a sparkling 7-0 Quad 1 record. Previously, Northeastern had been a 3-seed in each Baseball America and D1Baseball forecast.
In Baseball America, UConn was listed as a host to watch, but is the 2-seed in No. 15 Boston College’s Brighton Regional. The site has Northeastern as a 3-seed, along with Patriot League champion Army to round out the Regional.
The two outlets have 14 of the same hosts and the top eight seeds are in the same exact order, while they just disagree on one team.
UConn and Northeastern are well within busing distance to a potential Brighton Regional, which means if they’re in the same seeding band, whichever school is higher gets the preferred destination and the other could get sent across the country, depending on where it is in the pecking order. The two are helped by a large number of Regionals in the Southeast, as the Big 12 has two hosts and the Pac-12 has just one. This provides plenty of landing spots for ACC and SEC teams that may otherwise force their way north.
The Week Ahead
Big East Tournament: Mason, OH
Wednesday: No. 1 UConn vs. No. 4 Georgetown (2:30 p.m., FloSports)
No. 2 Xavier vs. No. 3 Seton Hall (6:30 p.m., FloSports)
Thursday: Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2 (2:30 p.m., FloSports, Elimination Game)
Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2 (6:30 p.m., FloSports)
Friday: Winner Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4 (5 p.m., FloSports, Elimination Game)
Saturday: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 (2 p.m., FloSports)
Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 (5:30 p.m., FloSports)*
* If necessary
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