Examining UConn's at-large NCAA Tournament case
The Huskies are the favorite in the Big East Tournament. What if they're upset?
Thank you for being a subscriber to the Hook C Baseball newsletter.
This weekly newsletter is brought to you by the folks who run The UConn Blog on SB Nation and the UConn WBB Weekly, UConn Hockey Hub, UConn Fast Break and Husky Football Forum newsletters! Please consider sharing or supporting our work!
What if UConn loses in the Big East Tournament?
UConn baseball has made each NCAA Tournament since the 2018 season and has earned bids in nine out of 13 events held since 2010, when it hosted the Norwich Regional and broke a 16-year drought. Four of those Regional appearances (2013, 2016, 2021, 2022) came via a conference championship, but five (2010, 2011, 2018, 2019 and 2023) came as an at-large team.
The Huskies are a heavy favorite in this year’s Big East Tournament and rightfully so. They finished 17-4 in league play, winning each of its seven series. Since rejoining the Big East for the 2021 season, Jim Penders’ teams are 24-1-1 in conference series, with the lone loss coming against Georgetown in the 2022 season, while it split a four-game set with Xavier in 2021.
However, it’s possible that UConn isn’t able to finish off the Big East sweep for the second straight year, falling in the conference tournament and pushing the team to the at-large pool. What happens then?
There’s still a lot of baseball to be played, with 29 conference tournaments, along with the final weekend of Big West play, though UC Santa Barbara has already clinched a share of the regular season title and will earn the automatic bid with either a win against UC Riverside this weekend or a UC Irvine loss, but the Huskies can rest assured they will likely hear their name called on Monday.
The team is No. 37 in the RPI, won the No. 7 RPI conference by three games and has a very strong schedule, which is rated No. 44 by Warren Nolan. Its non-conference strength of schedule jumps to No. 25. UConn also has 16 wins away from home, which is tied for No. 24 in the country. Those are all important metrics that the committee will look at to determine the field and seed the teams.
However, there are some metrics that could be the Huskies’ downfall, particularly if they lose both games they play in the Big East Tournament. Despite their strong schedule, their non-conference RPI is No. 61 and they’re a combined 10-15 in Quad 1 and 2 games. Both of those marks would only fall with an 0-2 showing at Prasco Park. UConn also is just 15-17 in non-conference play.
This scenario isn’t likely to come to pass, as the Huskies are 9-3 in Big East Tournament play since returning to the league in 2021 and are a combined 7-2 against the other three squads in the tournament. However, one bad weekend in a conference outside the power leagues can sink a season and UConn needs to be vigilant that it’s able to get at least one win, or even remove all doubt and add another trophy to the case.
RPI Update
This is one day earlier than usual because of the start of the Big East Tournament, but UConn enters the postseason at No. 37 in the RPI, which was a five-spot jump from the start of play on Thursday. Wednesday’s game against Xavier will start as Quad 1, but it may fall to Quad 2 if the Huskies win and Xavier falls from No. 40 in the RPI. Meanwhile, Georgetown and St. John’s are solidly Quad 2 for neutral site games.
Jim Penders’ team is 10-15 against Quads 1 and 2, but are 14-18 against the RPI top 100, as it played seven home games against the back end of the top 100. UConn can play as few as two and as many as five more games before Selection Monday, which limits its ability to move up significantly in the rankings, but a 3-0 Big East Tournament title has the potential to get the team close to the top 30, depending on what happens elsewhere, while a 0-2 weekend likely means an RPI between 40 and 45.
Bracketology
Baseball America
The Huskies remain as a 2-seed in Baseball America’s May 21 projection and are headed to Knoxville to face No. 1 Tennessee. They’re joined by Louisville, which is the last team in, and Wright State. UConn opened the season against the Cardinals with a 4-3 win. Xavier remains in this bracket, as a 3-seed in No. 3 Texas A&M’s College Station Regional.
Aside from Louisville, Bryant (4-seed) Kansas State (3-seed), Northeastern (3-seed) and UC Irvine (2-seed) are teams in the field against which UConn played a single game. No. 16 UC Santa Barbara remains as the lone weekend foe.
D1Baseball
UConn is a 2-seed in this pre-conference tournament projection, which was released on May 20. The Huskies are headed to the Knoxville Regional, which is hosted by No. 2 Tennessee. Georgia Tech and Fairfield complete the field. The Big East is now a one-bid league, as Xavier’s series loss to Villanova knocked them to the first four out. The NerdCast considers Jim Penders’ team a lock, but the Musketeers’ finish in the Big East doesn’t overcome its strong RPI and Quad 1 record. St. John’s and Georgetown were mentioned, but their RPIs are too low.
No. 13 UC Santa Barbara is the lone weekend foe projected to play June baseball. Bryant (4-seed), No. 14 Indiana State, Kansas State (3-seed), Northeastern (3-seed) and UC Irvine (2-seed) are the single-game opponents that earned a spot.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday
Game 1: No. 2 St. John’s vs. No. 3 Georgetown; 2:30 p.m.; FloSports
Game 2: No. 1 UConn vs. No. 4 Xavier; 6:30 p.m.; FloSports
Thursday
Game 3: Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2 (Elimination Game); 2:30 p.m.; FloSports
Game 4: Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2; 6:30 p.m.; FloSports
Friday
Game 5: Winner Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4 (Elimination Game); 4 p.m.; FloSports
Saturday
Game 6: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5; 12 p.m.; FS1
Game 7: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 (if necessary); 3:30 p.m.; FS2
If you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, please consider sharing it with a friend or two - it would mean a lot to us!
Be sure to follow The UConn Blog!