Big East Tournament Preview
Can UConn break its two-year drought and win its third dual conference title?
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Top storylines ahead of Big East tournament
The Big East Tournament’s field of four is set. While half the conference saw its season come to an end this past weekend, the remaining four competed for tournament seeding and RPI leverage, all with their eyes on the same goal: an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
The stakes are high. As many as three teams are in the running for an at-large bid, but it’s possible the Big East becomes a one-bid conference.
UConn-Xavier rematch
When Xavier took two of three from UConn in a late-March conference series, it did so at home. The Musketeer pitching staff held the Huskies to 17 runs in three games, an average of 5.66. In 55 games this season, UConn has scored 483 runs, more than three runs higher at 8.78 per game.
When UConn and Xavier rematch Wednesday at 6:30 p.m., they will do so in the Musketeers’ backyard at Prasco Park, but the Huskies are 4-4 against the Musketeers in Mason, Ohio and 9-5 overall.
It is safe to say UConn will see Xavier’s top arm Wednesday, as the Musketeers do not want to risk falling to the loser’s bracket right out of the gate. Ben Weber (6-3, 3.56) has the lowest ERA of any qualified pitcher in the most innings pitched by any Xavier staffer this season (81), but he got tagged for five earned runs on 11 hits in his only start against UConn this season. Ryan Piece (4-1, 3.97) surrendered one earned run and one hit against the Huskies in five innings March 28, and could be the man to take the hill should head coach Billy O’Conner wish to play by the history book.
The path to a three-bid conference
It is plausible that three of the four teams in the field move on to the NCAA Tournament by way of one automatic bid and two at-large bids — the latter of which hasn’t happened since the Big East merger in 2021. UConn and Xavier are ranked No. 39 and No. 38, respectively, in the RPI while Creighton sits at No. 50. All fates of all three are uncertain.
The latest projections and the reasonings are below in the Bracketology section. Creighton’s RPI figure is the most worrisome of the three, which shrinks their at-large bid chance. Their best chance to punch their ticket is to win the tournament outright. With the excellent pitching staff Creighton has put together this year — its 3.77 team ERA is nearly two runs lower than second-place Xavier — the Bluejays most certainly have a shot.
UConn leads the Big East in just about every major offensive statistic and has a shot to slug its way to an automatic bid. The Huskies’ 88 home runs is the 27th-best mark in the nation and their 588 hits is the 14th-best. Sluggers Tyler Minick and Ryan Daniels have put the team on their backs before this year and will be relied upon heavy this upcoming weekend against the conference’s best.
Xavier is an interesting case. After playing the third-hardest non-conference schedule in Division I, the Musketeers sit at 31-25 on the year. Their final stretch of the schedule was not kind to them, losing two out of three to both Creighton and Penn State.
Can St. John’s repeat?
The odds are stacked fairly high against St. John’s, which enter the Big East Tournament the lowest of the four seeds despite its status as defending conference champions. The Red Storm are 29-22 this year and 13-8 in conference play. In April, they were swept by both Creighton and UConn, though they did take all three games from Xavier at home that same month.
Offense has not been an issue for St. John’s. The Red Storm rank second in team average (.304), on base percentage (.400), runs (375) and hits (527), behind only UConn in all four categories. Though they have hit the fewest home runs of any team in the conference with 40, a team-wide .450 slugging percentage ranks third, thanks to a conference-leading 105 doubles. Eighty-three stolen bases ranks third, as well. The issue is the pitching, which sits second to last in the conference with a 7.36 program ERA. The Red Storm do not strike out hitters at an effective rate, second to last ahead of Butler, and have issued the fourth-most walks with the fourth-highest batting average against.
Then again, this is the playoffs and the oldest cliché in sports reaffirms anything can happen. If the Red Storm hit like they have all year and play defense like they have all year — ranked the Big East’s best in fielding percentage and fewest errors — they could give Creighton a run for their money in the first round, potentially making some noise along the way.
RPI Update
UConn, as well as most of college baseball, finished up its regular season on Saturday. The Huskies closed play on the day with the country’s No. 38 RPI. Most conference tournaments get underway Tuesday or Wednesday, though the Ivy League awarded its automatic bid to Columbia on Sunday and the Patriot League did the same to Holy Cross on Monday. These two conferences caused some fluctuations in the rankings, pushing UConn to No. 39, but since only five games were played, they’ve been mostly static since then.
The Huskies moved up from No. 43, where they were before the weekend began, despite getting minimal value from three wins against Maine. Games against Creighton and Xavier in the conference tournament are comfortably Quad 2, while any date with St. John’s is Quad 3. However, each team sits in the top 100 and UConn will finish with a perfect Quad 4 record and will look to build on its 11 Quad 1 and 2 wins.
Bracketology
Baseball America
Baseball America hadn’t published its bracketology as of 7 a.m. on Tuesday morning.
D1Baseball
D1Baseball.com published a projection on Sunday night and will do so regularly throughout the week. According to them, a three-bid Big East is in play. UConn has the automatic bid and is the 3-seed in No. 12 Clemson’s Clemson Regional. Alabama and Bryant will also compete for a Super Regional berth. Creighton has jumped into the field as part of the last four in after its sweep of Georgetown to earn a share of the Big East regular season title, while Xavier is the second team out of the field of 64.
According to the outlet’s podcast discussing its projection, the discussion for the Musketeers and Bluejays centered on conference record and head-to-head, which is the advantage for Creighton, vs. non-conference strength of schedule, in which Xavier has the edge.
UConn played single games against No. 3 Vanderbilt, No. 4 North Carolina and No. 13 UCLA, as well as 2-seed Duke, 3-seeds Rhode Island and USC and 4-seed Long Island. They also played a home-and-home with 2-seed Northeastern and took a series from 3-seed Miami (FL).
The Week Ahead
Wednesday
Game 1: No. 1 Creighton vs. No. 4 St. John’s; 2:30 p.m.; FloSports
Game 2: No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Xavier; 6:30 p.m.; FloSports
Thursday
Game 3: Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2 (Elimination Game); 2:30 p.m.; FloSports
Game 4: Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2; 6:30 p.m.; FloSports
Friday
Game 5: Winner Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4 (Elimination Game); 5 p.m.; FloSports
Saturday
Game 6: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5; 5p.m.; FS2
Game 7: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 (if necessary); 8:30 p.m.; FS1
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